A noisy news has come to Ukraine that he is planning a military attack as soon as 2022 next year。
The United States Washington Post (electronic version) reported on December 3 that Russia is planning a large -scale invasion of Ukraine, including the contents of a report created by the US Information Organization。
He pointed out that it would be a multi -front strategy that mobilized up to 175,000 people。
Why did this happen in the first place?
To put it simply, Ukraine wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Russia wants to stop。
Before that, Ukraine wanted to join the European Union (EU)。Therefore, as a step of a formal procedure to become a member of the member country, he tried to sign an agreement with the EU。
Russia was angry (or rather impatient), and the 2014 Ukrainian crisis occurred。Russia was annexed to the Crimean Peninsula, with Russia's belongings in a referendum。
The Crimea Peninsula is an extremely important strategic important point that can go from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea。If you go to the Mediterranean, both the Middle East and Africa are right there (Russia actually sends troops to both)。So I really wanted to secure Russia here。
Until then, Ukraine, like Belarus, has become an independent country after the collapse of the Soviet Union, like Belarus, but never ignored Russia as a parent Russian country。Russia retained its influence。It collapsed because Ukraine wanted to join the EU。
Since then, the civil war has continued in areas where Russia is bordered in eastern Ukraine。It is called "Donbus Civil War (War)" after the name of the region。
危機は続いているものの、EUとの連合協定は結ばれた。強調すると、これはEU加盟国の「候補」になるための第一歩であり、将来EUに加盟できる保証はない。それでも、第一歩がなければ何も始まらない。
When I live in Paris, I think that there are really many Ukrainians or more。
The next step for Ukraine is NATO。The EU is not a military organization (in the future, but in the future)。European defense and military are NATO frameworks in the United States。Ukraine, who continues the Russian -related civil war, wants to join NATO for the security of his country。
Russia, on the other hand, is demanding security in the United States, such as not dispatching NATO to Ukraine or not joining NATO。
President Putin is planning a "military invasion", but what he intends to do?I want to think about it。
Look at the map below。Ukraine is surrounded by thick black lines。
The red part is a print of the Donetsu Autonomy Federal Republic of Donetsk, claimed by the separation of the parent Russia, Ukrainian。Needless to say, separateist is a power supported by Russia。
The print of the "Donetsu Autonomous Federal Republic" was already claimed in 2006 before the Ukrainian crisis began。
The important point here is that if this print is realized, the Crimea will be safely and reliably Russia。
Even if Ukraine will be a member of NATO in the future, as long as this area is in Russian, the route from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean will be secured。
Currently, the Crimea Peninsula is called the Crimean Autonomous Republic。
As a result of the Crimea referendum in 2014, Russia has been controlled to Russian territory by transferring to its own country, "Crimean residents have chosen Russia。"On the other hand, the EU, the United States, and Japan are regarded as the territory of Ukraine。
Look at the next map。
Orange is a self -proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic", and Blue is a self -proclaimed "Lugansk People's Republic", and is a region that is effective (yellow and light blue are areas declared)。
In April 2014, the two People's Republic was created by parents Russia in April, after a referendum was held on the Crimea Peninsula。The Ukraine side regards them as "anti -government forces" and "terrorists。"
(In the media, it is often described as a "separationist")。
It is much smaller than the above red print claim。
The reason why it is "self -proclaimed" is that the United Nations affiliated countries do not have a state approval of both countries。
Russia has not approved Russia, even though Russia is behind。It can be said that Russia has maintained the "in front of the residents" and "Russia is deepening the relationship with the two by the residents' will"。
It is extremely doubtful that a person who believes in such a structure without doubt as much as it is in the EU。
However, it is certain that there is a soil that can not be said to be "Russia's horizontal", whether it is the Crimea and eastern Ukraine。In fact, there are many people who speak Russian as their native language and Russian speakers。
Until almost 30 years ago, it was one country called the Soviet Union。There are differences by generations。Some elderly people missed the Soviet Union, saying, "The Soviet era was more stable, the prices were cheap and peaceful。"
In addition, the country of Ukraine is said to be in the middle of being brewed as a "national nation"。
Reference article: What is a "country"?
The best use of democratic "Kenzen" is where Putin feels like Europeans。It is different from China (although the tendency to imitate Russia is a part of the international community that is not isolated in the international community)。
さて、この紛争状況を解決しようと、２０１４年９月には、ベラルーシにおいて「ミンスク合意」が結ばれた。欧州安全保障協力機構（OSCE）監督のもと、二つの自称人民共和国、ロシア、ウクライナが参加した。
The aim was to stop the dispute and re -integrate it into Ukraine in exchange for the expansion of the regional autonomy of the anti -Ukrainian forces。
However, it did not work, and in February 2015, an agreement called "Minsk 2" was concluded again。France and Germany are officially participating in this。
These agreements would have been the effect of escaping the worst。But it doesn't work。
The more unstable, the more Ukraine wants to join NATO。If you become a member of the United States, American and European countries (mostly EU member countries) are obliged to protect Ukraine。It is not a duty to help Ukraine because it is not a member country now。
The Ukrainian side has rebounded that Russia is unacceptable, despite its own country and the Atlantic issue。However, the shout is useless。
Even if you hear the possibility of this crisis, you will think, "Is it again?"
The dispute by "separationist" in eastern Ukraine has continued, and more than 13,000 people have died。
In the latter half of 2020, it was a truce, but the change appeared in January of this year。The new President Biden has taken office, accused Russian cyber attack, and called Putin a "murderer", and the US -Russian relationship has deteriorated。
According to the EU, there were about 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine。In April, the crisis increased, but in the late Russian army, which had been gathered near the border for several weeks, withdrew with precautionary lines。
However, it gathered again from November。Ukraine and the United States are starting a new approach over NATO。
From the background so far, I think, "Even if Russia shakes again, it will fit as much as possible。 It will not be the worst。"Just like launching a missile in the Sea of Japan in the Sea of North Korea, you're used to it or you're normal (it's not very good 。。。)。
The worst thing is that the Russian army enters Ukraine across the border, causing a full -fledged dispute and war。
Regarding the two self -proclaimed People's Republic, Russia has at least denied the involvement of the Russian regular troops。Even that (?) Is even broken -this is the worst situation。It is a report for the last few days that it may start early next year。
つい「そこまではならないでしょう」と思ってしまうのだが、そうとばかりは言い切れない。なぜなら、守勢のプーチン大統領が思い切った手段に出るのか否かがわからないからだ。それほどロシアは、全体から見るとジリジリと劣勢になっている。
The outstanding example is Moldova, a former Soviet Union。
In November 2020, in the Moldova presidential election, the President of the parent -ro, the former Prime Minister Maia Sandu of the United States and Europe won。In July 2021, she drove the parliament to the general election, and she was substantially led by the "actions and a solidarity party"。Russia's decline in influence has been revealed。
In the long run, I believe that the world will be democratized。The recoil era will come (maybe now)。It will go three steps and go two steps。Still, it is evolving little by little, and I think democratization is inevitable in history。
I think Europe is a pioneer area in particular。I think this is the power and achievement of the European Union, which developed and created for peace。
In words, even though he criticizes Putin and Russia, he is said to be a realist。
Biden announced on December 3 to defend Ukraine when invaded by Russia。This is to make Putin doing what people are afraid to do to make it very difficult。
"There are many ways we can use freely," said the White House spokeswoman Saki。Of course, there is an option of economic sanctions, but he did not answer questions about the possibility of military behavior in the United States。
Biden Putin's two presidents are planning to talk。
There is no doubt that President Biden is trying to revive the traditional bond between the United States and Europe, which was damaged by former President Trump。Therefore, from the viewpoint of "protecting European democracy" that has been around since the Cold War, Ukraine has a high interest in Ukraine。
In early September, Ukrainian President Zelenceky visited the White House。President Biden promised to "support Ukraine sovereignty and territorial conservation in Russian invasion。"
For Putin, for discussions including NATO member issues, visiting Ukraine visited the United States was one of the major factors in this crisis。
However, in fact, President Biden did not step into the hottest issue, NATO。He is also reported that he is frustrated by Ukrainian corruption and rule。
In addition, the United States has released economic sanctions on business operators under the construction of the Gas Pipeline "Nord Stream 2" in May this year。
This is directly connected from Russia to Germany through the seabed of the Baltic Sea。This is not a pipeline that passes through Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, etc。 on the land (they have a via)。
It is geopolitically advantageous to reach Germany directly。Still, the United States has canceled sanctions。
For Germany and Europe, problems may occur in Ukraine in the transposed country, and the supply stops on the way, and the risk of being swayed is reduced。It is more stable to get directly from Russia than to be a European crisis each time。
The Biden administration has given priority to partners in Western countries over Ukraine, etc。, and have tried to improve their relationship with Russia。
Although criticized that "it will be a division of Europe" and "it is only a weak waist," Russia will be raised, it is a proof that President Biden is realism。
The Black Sea has not been in conflict in the last few years, but it has a somewhat smelled atmosphere。
The United States will not have a conflict or war from himself unless the Russian army crosses the border。
The Biden administration has finally dropped a long -term burden of Afghanistan。He criticizes Chuo Russia by presiding over the "Democratic Summit", but is considered in Europe that it is rather in China。
For Russia, we don't think wars will win NATO if we have a serious war, so we don't want war。There is no major problem with American and European countries unless the military crosses the border。It's just a matter of keeping the shaking so far。And just like North Korea, you just need to bring it to a situation that is advantageous to your country。That's right 。。。
As mentioned earlier, it is unknown whether Russia, who is becoming more and more inferior, will take a drastic hand to protect the Crimea in the future。It is for Russian national interests that lead to the next generation and one after another。
I don't know if Russia moves the army and secures an area leading to the Crimean Peninsula -whether it will be a direct rule by Losia or whether to support the Russian regular army to the self -proclaimed XXX, but Russia will go through the Black Sea from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean。You can ensure the sea route。
The securing of the sea route and the antifreeze port is the history of the country, with the development of the Russian Empire。
Even if Russia would not win in the full war between the United States and NATO, it is unlikely that such a war will happen in the first place。If you take a war or a dispute that is not a big deal, you may win。There is no possibility of victory that makes full use of political and diplomatic power。
１）参考記事：バイデン「ロシアへ前代未聞の経済制裁」。核爆弾と呼ばれるスウィフトとは何か：米・欧州議会とウクライナ
２）参考記事：アメリカのドル制裁にロシア(や中国)はどう対抗する？４つの戦略と中露独自の金融網とは：ウクライナ危機
Until now, the United States and NATO did not intervene in the area during the 2008 Georgia (now Georgia) conflict (South Ocketia dispute), and in the annexation of Crimea in 2014。Their red line (defense line) is "NATO member states"。Neither Georgia nor Ukraine is a NATO member。
Opinions will be divided among the EU member countries。Roughly speaking, in Eastern European countries that are bordered by Ukraine, there are opinions in NATO members in the country。As it is, NATO's defense line is on the border of your country。It is better not to be your own country。It is safer to be far away。
On the other hand, it is not clear that NATO's defense line is better to have a buffer called Ukraine than Russia and Gachi, but it will never be said to be at the leading level of each country (this is why。Then, although there are various opinions, the EU is not in favor of Ukraine's NATO members。)
Such differences in the EU may be able to take advantage of their country if Russia is well attached。
But is it really realized?Even if President Putin wants to realize the "red -painted plate" in the above, and to ensure the rule of the Crimea, the current situation is the two self -proclaimed people introduced in orange and blue。
Some point out that Russia may invade to the capital, Kyiv。
Certainly, Kyiv is said to be the birthplace of Russia。From the Russian perspective, Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusi are originally one ethnic and brothers (of course Russia is the eldest son -before the war)。This contains an element that cannot be said to be a completely wrong error。
From the Ukrainian's point of view, Kyiv is the birthplace of Ukraine。It is not the birthplace of Russia!There are people。
(It is not the Bible Cain and Abel, but if the brothers break it, will it be more disaster than others?)
However, in the eastern part, there are actually a certain amount of parenting, while Kyiv is overwhelmingly the parent EU / United States。If you invade the capital, it will be a really large war。Isn't the probability of such a thing low?
プーチン大統領の最大の弱点は、後継者がいないことである。いま６９歳である。
This may be the "weakness" because Putin is European。In North Korea, a successor who has solidified with "blood" will appear in the future。In China, a single -party dictatorship Communist Party has created a system。Should East Asia have lower people?
From the perspective of the United States and Europe, there is no doubt that Belarus and Russia will proceed to democratization, even after the death of Putin or after aging, and even though there are many twists and turns。I think it's just a matter of leaving it to the referee。(The more serious problem is in China)。
But does Putin know that?What do he think of his homeland after his death?
Putin has stated that Russia's deeply involved, Armenia and Azerbaijan's Nagorno -Karabuff's territorial territories will be "solved by the next generation of leaders。"However, the Crimean Peninsula is completely different。
３）参考記事：なぜアルメニアが負けたのか。ロシアはなぜ同盟国に援助しなかったのか： ナゴルノ=カラバフ紛争
It is not a recent problem of the Cold War and the United States, from the Black Sea to the Cold War and the United States。It is a serious territorial issue for Russia。
Even if it fits this time, a similar problem will occur again。And the same question will be repeated again。
I think Putin will be aware of his old age, just like all other 70 -year -olds。Now, I can't see it at all so old that he can't be aware of his old age。
When thinking about the finite time left as a human being, what kind of decision will Putin "Emperor" make for the future of his homeland?Or will it end without the decision?
Finally, Russia tends to look east if it fails west。In other words, if you do not work in Ukraine or the Black Sea, I would like to write that you may look at the Sea of Japan。It is a very difficult problem that involves the middle -loved relationship and Japan -China relations。
Europe has escaped from such a history。France, Germany, Italy 。。。 European countries have repeated wars with a hundred years of connection, but the construction of the European Union ended their connections with their will and power。What a enviable thing?
４）参考記事：EUから見たウクライナ危機【１】プーチン大統領の欧州はずしと、マクロン大統領との会談
５）参考記事：欧州はウクライナを中立化させる？「フィンランド化」とは何か【２】EUからみたウクライナ危機
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Ukrainian's public relations video.It seems to have been produced in 2014.Each soldier depicts who are.Finally, "No one was born for the war, but we are all here to protect freedom."It has been often on SNS for several days.
It is not "to protect loved ones" or "for their homeland", but "for freedom" is impressive.It was somewhat hesitant to put a public relations video of an army created by an advertising agency in his article, but knowing what Ukrainian people have seen in any military recruitment advertisements.I think it will be helpful.